April 12, 2006

Iran's subtle subtle strategy

That's what people need to do more often. They need to take the things they read and read past the dot at the end, and preferably between the lines as well. People are too close minded in certain matters. It is a dangerous liability.

A diplomat that cannot read past the Period line in a diplomatic correspondence is a liability that will get people killed. A diplomat that cannot read between the lines, will get even more people killed.

The point nitty makes is rather valid. Something hath motivated Iran to declare their nuclear ambitions. And that something is called Iraq and Afghanistan and the Revolution in Lebanon, casting off the chains of occupation under their so called ally Syria.

Iran believes that time is not on their side, that if they don't cause some kind of problem to check America, that in the future they will be at a disadvantage. Iran seems to be hurrying to build a nuke. And yet Iran must know that they are vulnerable in the here and now.

Either Iran has an ace or two stuck up their sleeves, or Iran is depending upon the multilateral traits of George W. Bush, President of the United States and America and the person who decides by himself what is the foreign policy of America.

Any half-assed competent intelligence analyst can see the multilateral and procrastination traits of Bush, and it isn't too far to leap to think that Iran is depending upon Bush's bluff.

Iran, I tend to think, analyzed what went on before Iraq and realized that they had X amount of time the UN would give them. So they announced their nuclear ambitions at a specific point in time. This is all connected, to diplomats and reasonable people who can read between the lines, to what is going on in Iraq. With Al Sadr and Jaffari. Iran must control Iraq, or otherwise be shattered in 50 years. If Iraq goes to the Americans the way the Kurds and Sunni want, Iraq will become a Middle East powerhouse. Far, far more powerful than Israel and much more of a threat.

Because of Iran's show of strength with their nukes, they now have Jaffari and Sadr firmly in their pocket. Why are people fighting if Saddam is in the docket and the Sunnis are making deals against Al Qaeda? They are fighting because 60% of the population are Shia, and they believe the winner and strong horse is called iran, not the US.

This is the price of multilateralism and predictability, Bush is paying and Iraqi children are paying.

Iran's strategy is very subtle and two pronged. A lot of Americans are kind of parochial in that they only think about American counter-responses and strategy, but nitty by bringing up the POV from Iran's perspective, gives new insights into the situation.

Iran's strategy will work in the end. Iraq is at the precipice. Too many arrogant people in Congress believe that only a pull out will lose Iraq, that if only Americans stay there that nothing bad will happen that we can't handle. *shakes head* The enemy is making plans as well, and they aren't stupid. Fanatic and blinded by ideology, but not stupid in terms of power politics.

We lose Iraq to Iran, and Iran will give nuclear technology to the Shia in return for an alliance against America. The Shia will use nukes to keep the Kurds and Sunni in line. Al Qaeda will then be free to launch attacks against America, once Iraq has been stabilized.

Iran's grand strategy is becoming clearer. It is what I would do if I were in the mullah's shoes, given the limitations that I would have.

Without Iraq, Iran would not have announced their nuclear ambitions so soon. It was never in their interest to do so. But now it is. It is a dual prong strategy.

Nukes will buy them not only immunity but a huge bargaining chip in Iraq. Announcing nukes this early will make a fool of the US, thereby weakening our credibility in the ME and in Iraq. Announcing nukes will also gain them the support of China and Russia, because China and Russia will never miss an opportunity to embarass the US. The scales of power are tilting in Iran's balance, and the parochialists in America are blind to the consequences.


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